Pick City is 8-6 in college football this season, and we have five plays this week plus our weekly three-team teaser.
3* Texas Tech -7.5
It’s “Guns Up” this weekend as the Red Raiders welcome Arizona State to Lubbock in what will definitely be a shootout. Texas Tech had the No. 1 ranked offense in the country in 2016 averaging 564.5 yards per game. Not much has changed in 2017 as they put up 626 total yards in a 56-10 win over Eastern Washington in their only game played so far this season. That spells trouble for Arizona State’s porous defense which gave up 549 total yards to New Mexico State in week one and 279 yards rushing in a week two home loss to San Diego State. The Sun Devils are 3-8 their last 11 games against the spread. Texas Tech is 4-0 against the spread their last four games coming off a bye week, and 8-3 against the spread in their last 11 games overall. The Pick City Pick: Texas Tech 52, Arizona State 38.
3* Mississippi State +7.5
The Bulldogs dominated an above average Louisiana Tech team 57-21 on the road as a 9.5-point favorite. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald has thrown for 363 yards and five touchdowns in his first two games, and he’s also run for 152 yards and three more scores. The LSU defense is dynamic, but they haven’t faced a competent offense yet. LSU has won 16 of the last 17 games between these two SEC West rivals, but the last three games have been decided by a combined 10 points. Mississippi State has the coaching advantage with Dan Mullen over Ed Orgeron, and they also have the quarterback advantage with Fitzgerald over Danny Etling. We not only think the Bulldogs can keep this close… we think they can win it outright. The Pick City Pick: Mississippi State 23, LSU 20.
2* Duke -11.5
The Blue Devils are averaging 50 points and 531 total yards per game so far this season. They’re coming off an impressive 41-17 win over Northwestern—a game in which they were a small underdog. Baylor is off to a 0-2 start and their defense is giving up an average of 480 yards per game, and that includes giving up 585 yards to Liberty in week one. It will be interesting to see the mindset of this Baylor team as they travel to Durham, North Carolina for their first road game of the season. The Pick City Pick: Duke 41, Baylor 24.
2* Missouri -6.5
This is one of those situational games that I like to call a “good spot.” Mizzou head coach Barry Odom already fired his defensive coordinator and will be taking over on that side of the ball. I actually like this because Odom took over the defense at the end of last season and the Tigers upset Arkansas in their season finale. Purdue looks to be improving under new head coach Jeff Brohm, but the defense is still pretty terrible. The Boilermakers have given up 920 total yards of offense in their first two games. They will have their hands full in their first true road game against the high powered Mizzou offense. The Tigers’ backs are against the wall and this is a must-win game for Barry Odom. The Pick City Pick: Mizzou 45, Purdue 31.
The Diet Cole Special: 2* Kansas State -4
The Diet Cole Special is 1-0 after picking UTSA +17 over Baylor, and the Road Runners defeated the Bears outright. This week, the pick is Bill Snyder’s Kansas State Wildcats over Vanderbilt. The Commodores have been impressive thus far this season, but they haven’t exactly played quality competition. This game features two of the top five most efficient passers in college football this season between Vandy’s Kyle Shurmur and Kansas State’s Jesse Ertz, but this game comes down to trusting Snyder as much as any coach in the country. The Wildcats play disciplined football on both sides of the ball, and Snyder brings back one of the most experienced teams in the Big 12. Vandy doesn’t have much of a home field advantage, and I think Kansas State will be ready to take on an SEC team on the road. The Pick City Pick: Kansas State 30, Vanderbilt 23.
College Football Teaser of the Week
A three-team, 10-point teaser pays out -110. So, you’d risk $110 to win $100, and you have to win all three games to win. The Pick City College Teaser of the Week is 1-0 this season.
Virginia Tech -13 (from -23 at East Carolina)
Stanford +1 (from -9 at San Diego State)
Alabama -18.5 (from -28.5 vs. Alabama)
Check our Twitter @BettorTakeCover and Facebook page (Bettor Take Cover) for more picks Saturday morning.