One glance at the Week 3 schedule here was my immediate thought: uh oh. There are 10 road favorites this week, and one of them already lost ATS. The Rams were up 15 on the 49ers in the fourth quarter as a 3-point favorite, but the 49ers battled back and lost 41-39. It was a win for the Rams, but a devastating loss for bettors backing the Rams.
This week has lots of potential traps, and we’re coming off of a week where public teams like the Patriots and Raiders covered easily. Our mindset going into this weekend is that the house always wins, and we already saw the house make some back Thursday night with the 49ers.
There are a handful of teams that have taken over 80 percent of the bets in Vegas for this weekend, including the Chiefs, Steelers, Broncos and Raiders. If you know the house always wins, why not take a chance this week and be on their side?
Pick City NFL is 4-8 this season.
3* Chargers +3
I can’t quit the Chargers. Not yet, at least. I’m giving them one more week. They’re 0-2, but had chances to win both games and missed kicks at the end of regulation against the Broncos and Dolphins. This isn’t a bad team, and with every team in their division at 2-0, this is a must-win game if they want to make the playoffs. The Chiefs have been excellent this year, and Andy Reid has reminded everyone that he’s one of the three best coaches in the NFL. But the Chargers have to have this game, and I’m expecting a great game from Philip Rivers. The Pick City Pick: Chargers 24, Chiefs 22.
2* Panthers/Saints under 46 and 2* Saints +5
If you add up the totals of both Panthers games so far, there have been 38 total points. Carolina defeated San Francisco 23-3 and Buffalo 9-3, and the defense has shown improvement after regressing last season. The Panthers’ offense hasn’t been very good, and Cam Newton still look unhealthy. While New Orleans is good offensively, they’re historically bad outside of a dome and they’ve struggled to stretch the field in the vertical passing game. The Saints are 0-2, and their season is on the line as they can’t afford to slip to 0-3 in the tough NFC South. Meanwhile, the Panthers aren’t a very strong 2-0 team, and they are prone to be upset this weekend. The Pick City Pick: Saints 23, Panthers 20.
2* Falcons/Lions over 50
These two offenses have been prolific through two weeks, and Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan have both looked fantastic in leading their teams to 2-0 starts. Vic Beasley is out for the next month or so for Atlanta, and he is by far the best defensive player for the Falcons. This is a toss-up game, but I think both offenses will find plenty of success and light up the scoreboard. The Pick City Pick: Falcons 34, Lions 31.
2* Bucs -2
This is one of the few public sides I don’t mind this weekend. Tampa is on the road, but they’re facing a Minnesota team without Sam Bradford running the offense. Case Keenum wasn’t terrible filling in for Bradford at Pittsburgh, but he wasn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard either. Tampa was impressive on both sides of the ball in its season opening win over Chicago, and I look for them to add a solid road win to the resume this weekend. The Pick City Pick: Bucs 24, Vikings 19.
2* Bills +3.5
I’ve been wrong about the Broncos so far this season, and they have been very impressive through two weeks. Trevor Siemian looks great, and the offense has been efficient overall. The defense hasn’t taken a step back, either, and they dominated Dallas last week from start to finish. But both of their first two games were at home, and this is a team that feeds off of the home crowd. Buffalo hasn’t exactly looked like a playoff team through two weeks, but they’re playing tough, disciplined football under new coach Sean McDermott. The Bills are tough on defense, and I think they can rattle Siemian and pull off a major upset at home. The Pick City Pick: Bills 19, Broncos 16.
2* Seahawks/Titans under 42.5
Seattle’s offense has really struggled to protect Russell Wilson, and they’ve only mustered 21 points in two games. They eked out a 12-9 win over San Francisco, but it wasn’t exactly a promising performance. The Seahawks defense is still dominant, and it’s good enough to keep them in any game. This is a tough spot for Seattle, but I look for the defense to keep them in a close, defensive battle. The Pick City Pick: Titans 20, Seahawks 16.
2* Redskins +3
The Redskins were impressive in a road win last week at the Rams, and there was a nice balance offensively with the running game and Kirk Cousins. The Raiders have looked every bit like the Super Bowl contender they were projected to be in the preseason, but the defense still concerns me moving forward. This will be the second time in three weeks they’ve traveled across the country, and while the late start helps this week, I’m backing Cousins and the Redskins here. The Pick City Pick: Raiders 30, Redskins 28.
We aren’t putting plays on these games, but here’s who we would take if we had to pick a side.
NFL Teaser of the Week
A three-team, 10-point teaser pays out -110. So, you’d risk $110 to win $100, and you have to win all three games to win. Pick City is 0-2 on the year on the three-team teasers.
Dolphins +4.5 (from -5.5 at Jets)
Steelers +2.5 (from -7.5 at Bears)
Packers +3 (from -7 vs. Bengals)
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